Related post: Modelling the Roman era sample from Marathon Greece on qpAdm and G25
Study: A genetic history of the Balkans from Roman frontier to Slavic migrations
Post by Davidski about the study: https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2024/01/romans-and-slavs-in-balkans-olalde-et.html
I used the reference/right populations as in that study but expanded upon them to decrease standard errors. If you have any criticism then tell me in the comments so i can improve the models.
The Balkan study didn't use a Balkan proxy for mainland Greeks even though they have a lot of Balkan Y-DNA from both sides of the Balkans, Arvanites/Albanians, Thracian etc, obviously in my models i have to take into account the Balkan admix. The models with South Slavic fit the best when rotating because they take into account the Balkan admx. They could have used a Balkan or South Slavic proxy if they added more right/reference populations + a lot of good quality Rome Imperial samples that are identical to Mugla West Anatolian samples to decrease the Standard Errors.
The "Ottoman Turkish" proxy of the study is also sus, the paper claims that it is central Asian mixed but i can't find any models showcasing how much Central Asian admix it has. My qpAdm models don't fail without Central Asian/East Asian despite using Mongolia_North_N in the reference/right pops. It seems that they might have used some very low Turkic mixed sample that is mostly Byzantine Greek and just tagged it as Ottoman Turkish. If i somehow missed their models about the Turkic admix of the "Ottoman Turkish" samples then tell me in the comments.
If you are curious about the absence of Mycenaean as a source in the qpAdm chart, please scroll down to the qpAdm reference section below for a detailed overview of the models utilized. The selection criteria prioritized models based on their P-values, with preference given to those demonstrating the highest statistical significance. Furthermore, modern Greeks scored less than 5% excess Mycenaean when using the Roman era Aegean proxy.
The Aegean proxy in my analysis consist of samples from the Roman-era Mugla in West Anatolia, along with Imperial Rome samples that are identical to those from Mugla. Furthermore, the Marathon sample from 300 AD southern Greece is identical to those samples. It scores a total of 30-50% Mycenaean admix depending on the proxies used so Mugla samples might be an actual good representative of Roman era Southern Greeks until we get more samples.
Explaining more about the Roman era Aegean proxy here:
More work will be be done on these models, i will update them in the future.
qpAdm models:
Scroll down to see all the models i ran.
Low P values (<0.01 / lower than 0.01) indicate poor fit of the tested model
